New research from the University of Exeter has revealed that banana production in Latin America and the Caribbean could become economically unsustainable by 2080 due to the effects of climate change. The study, published in Nature Food, highlights how rising temperatures and environmental shifts will make it increasingly difficult to cultivate bananas for export in these regions. Given that bananas are a critical export commodity worth $11 billion (£8.9 billion) annually, the findings raise serious concerns about the future of the industry and the livelihoods of millions who depend on it.
The research, led by Professor Dan Bebber, warns that without significant adaptation efforts, about 60 percent of current banana-growing regions will struggle to produce the fruit by the end of the century. This shift would not only affect farmers and exporters but also the global supply chain and food security in banana-importing nations. The findings emphasize that climate change is not just an environmental challenge—it is a direct threat to global agriculture and economies reliant on key crops like bananas.
The Growing Climate Challenge for Bananas
Banana plants require specific climatic conditions, including consistent rainfall, moderate temperatures, and rich soil. However, climate change is altering these conditions, with higher temperatures, more extreme weather events, and shifts in rainfall patterns creating less-than-ideal environments for banana production. The research team used high-resolution satellite imagery to map banana plantations across Latin America and the Caribbean, analyzing climate data to determine the optimal conditions for cultivation. Their findings revealed that in many traditional banana-producing regions, rising temperatures and reduced water availability will lower yields and make farming increasingly difficult.
Countries such as Colombia and Costa Rica, two of the world’s leading banana exporters, are expected to be among the hardest hit. As temperatures rise, these areas could become too hot for banana plants to thrive, leading to reduced fruit quality and increased susceptibility to disease. In contrast, Ecuador and parts of Brazil are expected to remain viable for banana cultivation, as climate change impacts in these regions are projected to be less severe. However, even in these areas, adaptation measures will be crucial to sustain production levels.
Socioeconomic Barriers to Adaptation
While climate change is a significant challenge, the study also highlights socioeconomic factors that could hinder adaptation efforts. Many banana plantations are located near densely populated areas and major ports, making it difficult to relocate production to more climate-resilient regions. The cost of moving banana farms, along with the infrastructure required for processing and exporting, poses a major economic challenge. Additionally, labor availability is a critical issue—bananas require a large workforce, and relocating plantations could mean losing access to experienced workers or disrupting entire communities that depend on banana farming for their livelihoods.
Professor Dan Bebber from the University of Exeter emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating, “Our findings are a stark reminder that climate change is not just an environmental issue but a direct threat to global food security and livelihoods. Without substantial investment in adaptation, including irrigation and heat-tolerant banana varieties, the future of export banana production looks uncertain.” His warning underscores the urgent need for immediate action to protect the industry from climate-driven decline.
The Role of Extreme Heat and Worker Welfare
Beyond its impact on crops, climate change also affects agricultural workers, who are often exposed to extreme temperatures while harvesting and processing bananas. The study found that as temperatures rise, outdoor working conditions in banana plantations will become increasingly dangerous, increasing the risk of heat stress and related health issues. If proper measures are not taken—such as better shading, hydration programs, and adjusted work schedules—the availability of farm labor could decline, further threatening banana production.
Heat stress could also lead to reduced productivity among workers, which would impact harvesting rates and increase labor costs, making banana farming even less economically viable. The issue of worker welfare is closely linked to economic sustainability, as many producers already operate on thin profit margins due to volatile global banana prices and competition from other fruit-exporting regions.
Potential Solutions and Adaptation Strategies
To combat these challenges, researchers propose several adaptation strategies to make banana production more resilient in the face of climate change. Key solutions include:
- Developing heat- and drought-tolerant banana varieties – Scientists and agricultural researchers are working on breeding banana plants that can withstand higher temperatures and drier conditions. These improved varieties could help mitigate yield losses and reduce dependency on irrigation.
- Expanding irrigation infrastructure – Many banana-growing regions rely on natural rainfall, but as climate change disrupts precipitation patterns, increased irrigation will be essential. Investing in efficient drip irrigation systems could help optimize water use and sustain production.
- Enhancing soil and water conservation techniques – Implementing sustainable farming practices, such as mulching, cover cropping, and improved drainage systems, can help banana plantations retain moisture and reduce the impact of temperature extremes.
- Relocating production to more suitable areas – Although relocation presents challenges, some producers may need to explore new regions that will remain climatically favorable for banana cultivation in the coming decades. This could involve government incentives and infrastructure investments to support migration to new farmlands.
- Supporting smallholder farmers and local communities – Many banana producers in Latin America and the Caribbean are smallholder farmers with limited resources. Providing financial support, climate adaptation training, and fair trade policies will be essential in helping them cope with the effects of climate change.
- Improving worker conditions – As heat stress becomes a growing concern, providing protective clothing, shaded rest areas, and hydration programs can help safeguard farm workers’ health and maintain productivity levels.
The Global Impact of a Declining Banana Industry
If climate change significantly reduces banana production, the effects will ripple far beyond Latin America and the Caribbean. Bananas are one of the world’s most consumed fruits, and any decline in supply could lead to higher prices and reduced availability in supermarkets worldwide. Given the heavy reliance on bananas in low-income countries as a staple food, production losses could also exacerbate food insecurity in vulnerable populations.
Furthermore, major economies such as the United States and European Union heavily depend on Latin American bananas for their fruit markets. A decline in exports could lead to shifts in trade dynamics, with importing countries seeking alternative suppliers or increasing investments in controlled-environment agriculture (such as greenhouse-grown bananas). However, large-scale greenhouse banana production remains costly and unlikely to replace traditional farms anytime soon.
Urgency for Action
The study’s findings make it clear that waiting until the crisis fully unfolds is not an option. Governments, agricultural organizations, and international trade bodies must act now to support climate adaptation strategies. The banana industry employs millions of people, from farm laborers to exporters, and its decline would have severe socioeconomic consequences.
Dr. Varun Varma of Rothamsted Research, who developed the remote sensing algorithms for the study, emphasized the need for continued research, stating, “By using advanced satellite imagery, we can predict which areas are most at risk and develop targeted adaptation measures. However, funding and coordinated efforts between governments, scientists, and industry leaders will be critical to ensuring a sustainable future for banana production.”
Additionally, José Antonio Guzmán Alvarez from the Costa Rican organization CORBANA, which supports the national banana industry, stressed that public-private partnerships will be necessary to help banana producers implement climate adaptation strategies at scale.
More information: Socio-economic factors constrain climate change adaptation in a tropical export crop, Nature Food (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01130-1